How Do I Predict Which Sneakers Will Increase in Value?
In recent years, sneakers have evolved from simple athletic footwear into highly coveted collectibles and investment assets. What was once a niche hobby for sneakerheads has now become a booming secondary market where rare and sought-after sneakers can sell for thousands—sometimes even tens of thousands—of dollars. For many, the allure of making a profit through sneaker resales is strong. But how do you know which sneakers are likely to increase in value? Predicting which sneakers will appreciate requires a combination of market knowledge, brand awareness, release strategy understanding, and cultural insight.
This article will explore the key factors that influence sneaker value appreciation and provide actionable strategies to help you make informed decisions when investing in sneakers.
1. Understand the Sneaker Market Landscape
Before diving into the specifics of predicting value, it’s essential to understand the current state of the sneaker market. The market is largely driven by a few major brands—Nike, Adidas, Jordan Brand (a subsidiary of Nike), New Balance, and increasingly, luxury brands like Gucci, Dior, and Balenciaga.
Each brand has its own ecosystem of collaborations, limited releases, and iconic models. For example:
Nike has the Air Jordan, Air Max, and SB Dunk lines. Adidas has the Yeezy, Ultraboost, and Campus lines. New Balance has seen a surge in popularity with its 990 series and collaborations with Aimé Leon Dore and Palace.Understanding which brands and models are currently in demand is the first step in predicting future value.
2. Research Brand Collaborations and Designer Partnerships
Collaborations between sneaker brands and high-profile designers, celebrities, or streetwear labels are often the most valuable in the resale market. These partnerships create a sense of exclusivity and prestige that drives demand.
Examples include:
Travis Scott x Nike (Air Jordan 1, Air Max 270) Fear of God x Nike Off-White x Nike (The Ten collection) Pharrell Williams x Adidas Kanye West x Adidas (Yeezy)These collaborations are usually released in limited quantities and often sell out within minutes. Their value is further boosted by the cultural relevance of the collaborators and the visual appeal of the designs.
To predict which upcoming collaborations might be valuable, follow brand announcements, designer social media accounts, and reputable sneaker news outlets like Hypebeast, Complex, and Sole Collector.
3. Monitor Limited and Regional Releases
Limited releases are a cornerstone of the sneaker resale market. The basic economic principle of supply and demand plays a major role here: the fewer pairs available, the higher the demand, and the greater the potential for value appreciation.
Some key types of limited releases include:
Regional exclusives: Shoes released only in certain countries or cities (e.g., Nike’s Japan-exclusive releases). Sample or unreleased pairs: Prototypes or unreleased shoes that occasionally surface on the market. Store exclusives: Limited drops at select retailers like Foot Locker, Finish Line, or boutique stores like Concepts or UNDFTD.These sneakers often become rare collector’s items, especially if they gain cultural significance or are never re-released.
4. Track Hype and Cultural Relevance
Sneakers are not just products—they are cultural artifacts. A shoe’s value is often tied to its presence in music, film, sports, and social media. For example:
The Air Jordan brand is inextricably linked to Michael Jordan and basketball culture. The Nike Air Yeezy 2 “Red October” gained massive hype due to Kanye West’s involvement. The Nike SB Dunk line saw a resurgence in popularity due to social media trends and the rise of skate culture.Monitoring trends on platforms like Instagram, TikTok, and YouTube can help identify which sneakers are gaining traction among influencers and celebrities. If a particular shoe starts appearing frequently in viral content or on celebrities, its value is likely to rise.
5. Pay Attention to Re-release History
Some sneakers are re-released multiple times, which can dilute their value. Others are never re-released, making them highly desirable.
For example:
Air Jordan retros are regularly re-released, which keeps the supply steady and limits extreme appreciation. The Nike Air Yeezy 2 “Red October” was only released once, contributing to its high resale value.Before investing in a sneaker, research its release history. If a shoe has not been re-released in several years and is still in demand, it’s a strong candidate for appreciation.
6. Consider the Model’s Legacy and Iconic Status
Certain sneaker models have achieved iconic status due to their history, design, or association with influential figures. These models are more likely to hold or increase in value over time.
Examples include:
Nike Air Jordan 1 Nike Air Max 97 Adidas Originals Superstar New Balance 990v6 Nike Air Force 1These models have stood the test of time and continue to be relevant in both fashion and culture. Investing in an iconic model with a limited colorway or collaboration can be a safe bet.
7. Use Sneaker Marketplaces and Analytics Tools
Several platforms and tools can help you track sneaker values and trends:
StockX: A sneaker marketplace with real-time pricing data and historical sales. GOAT: Another major platform with a large database of sneaker resales. Sneaker News: A news site that covers upcoming releases and collaborations. Hypebeast: Offers insights into trends and designer collaborations. Resale price tracking apps: Some apps provide analytics on which sneakers are appreciating in value.By analyzing data from these sources, you can identify patterns and make more informed decisions about which sneakers to invest in.
8. Understand the Role of Grading and Condition
The condition of a sneaker plays a significant role in its value. Shoes that are unworn, still in their original box, and stored properly will command higher prices. Some buyers even prefer deadstock (DS) or new in box (NIB) conditions.
In recent years, third-party grading services like Sneaker Con and Collectors Authentication Services (CAS) have emerged to authenticate and grade sneakers, much like the comic book or trading card markets. A high grade can significantly increase a sneaker’s value, especially for older or rare models.
9. Be Aware of Market Saturation and Timing
While some sneakers are guaranteed to appreciate, others may become oversaturated or lose popularity due to overexposure or poor brand management. For example, the Yeezy line lost significant value after Kanye West’s controversies and Adidas’s decision to terminate the partnership.
Timing is also crucial. Buying in on the hype too late can mean missing out on the biggest gains. Conversely, buying too early on a shoe that never gains traction can result in losses.
10. Stay Informed and Network with the Community
Finally, staying connected with the sneaker community can provide invaluable insights. Join online forums like Reddit’s r/SneakerCollectors, attend sneaker conventions like Sneaker Con, and follow influential collectors and resellers on social media.
The sneaker community is passionate and knowledgeable. Engaging with others can help you spot emerging trends, learn about upcoming releases, and avoid scams or counterfeit shoes.
Conclusion
Predicting which sneakers will increase in value is both an art and a science. It requires a deep understanding of brand strategies, market dynamics, cultural trends, and consumer behavior. While there are no guarantees in the sneaker market, following the strategies outlined above—researching collaborations, tracking limited releases, monitoring hype, and using analytics tools—can significantly improve your chances of making profitable investments.
As with any investment, it’s important to do your due diligence, start small, and gradually build your knowledge and portfolio. Whether you’re a seasoned collector or a newcomer to the world of sneaker reselling, the key to success lies in staying informed, being patient, and understanding the ever-evolving culture of sneakers.